Top seed Aryna Sabalenka powered into the US Open final with a straight-sets win over No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula, 7-5, 6-2, on Arthur Ashe Stadium. The world No. 1 was never broken and leaned on a sharp return and heavy baseline hitting to move through. Pegula opened the match on serve but could not convert any of her chances, while Sabalenka steadily raised her level in the second set. For full numbers and point-by-point flow, visit the match page on Sofascore.

Serve patterns that shaped the scoreboard

Sabalenka’s serve did its job across both sets, even if Pegula’s first-serve percentage was higher. The Belarusian landed 66% of first serves to Pegula’s 72%, but the real separation arrived on second balls. Sabalenka won 65% of her second-serve points overall, dwarfing Pegula’s 24% in that column. She finished with 7 aces against 3 double faults, while Pegula posted 4 aces and no doubles. Despite Pegula’s edge on first-serve points won (77% to 74%), Sabalenka’s reliability behind the second delivery tilted hold after hold in her favor. Ten service games played, ten service games held for the No. 1 seed tells the story. She also saved the only break point she faced on the night. The serve was a platform, and the second-serve solidity was the foundation.

Numbers from the first set underline the theme. Sabalenka won 73% of her first-serve points and 64% on second serves, enough to withstand Pegula’s strong 83% success rate behind first serves. In the second set, Sabalenka tightened further, winning 77% on first serve and 67% on second, while Pegula slipped to 68% and 20% respectively. That drop on Pegula’s second serve made holds a grind and invited pressure in every return game. The aces tally also mattered in key moments, with Sabalenka’s free points coming right when rallies threatened to stretch. Pegula’s clean serving without double faults kept her in many games, but it was not enough against the No. 1 seed’s complete service performance.

Return pressure and the break-point story

This semifinal turned decisively on return performance. Overall, Sabalenka won 23 receiving points to Pegula’s 17, a steady drip that became a flood in the second set. First-serve return points were close, with Pegula slightly better at 25% to Sabalenka’s 23%, but that was not the decisive lane. The second-serve return numbers were the difference-maker: Sabalenka captured 76% of points when Pegula missed her first serve, while Pegula managed 35% in the same situations. That pressure accumulated into break points, and conversion followed. Sabalenka went 3 breaks from the chances she created, while Pegula finished 0 from 8. The American saved 5 of 8 break points faced, but the three that slipped away mapped neatly onto the final scoreline.

Set by set, the pattern held. In the opener, Pegula faced three break points and saved two, but Sabalenka took the one that counted and avoided surrendering her lone break point against. In the second, Pegula saved 3 of 5 break points yet again could not find a way to break back. With both players contesting 10 return games each, the conversion gap explained the 7-5, 6-2 finish. The lesson was simple: first delivery parity is fine, but second-serve returns and break-point composure win big matches on hard courts. Sabalenka ticked both boxes.

Shotmaking balance: winners, errors and momentum

From the back of the court, Sabalenka’s heavier strike and depth told over two sets. She finished with 29 total winners to Pegula’s 11, an emphatic difference for a two-set match. The forehand was a key weapon, producing 13 winners to Pegula’s 6. The backhand battle was even more lopsided, with Sabalenka striking 8 backhand winners to Pegula’s 1. She also added a volley winner and an overhead to keep Pegula guessing whenever she did approach. Groundstroke winners stood 20 to 7 in Sabalenka’s favor, capturing how often she controlled baseline exchanges and finished points on her terms.

Errors were not absent, but the risk-reward math leaned green for the top seed. Sabalenka totaled 22 errors to Pegula’s 26 overall, yet the unforced column read 20 for Sabalenka and 10 for Pegula. That contrast shows Pegula played tidier tennis, but without enough penetration to trouble the No. 1. The winners-to-unforced tally therefore mattered more: Sabalenka’s +9 differential (29 winners, 20 UFEs) outpaced Pegula’s +1 (11 winners, 10 UFEs). Momentum swings were visible in runs as well, with Sabalenka taking a maximum of 7 points in a row compared to Pegula’s 4. She also strung together more games consecutively, three to one, mirroring how the match sped up in her direction after the opening hour.

Set-by-set: tight first set, decisive second on Arthur Ashe

The first set had a premium on holds, with no tiebreak required. Pegula’s first-serve efficiency was excellent at 77% in, and she won 83% behind it. Sabalenka matched with volume and second-serve grit, winning 64% of her second-serve points and saving her only break point. Pegula faced three break points, saved two, but the single slip gave Sabalenka the 7-5 edge. Service points won told a narrow story, 26 for Sabalenka and 22 for Pegula, while return points leaned 11 for Pegula and 9 for Sabalenka. Even so, the world No. 1 grabbed the key points and closed the door with confident first-ball strikes.

The second set moved quicker and cleaner for Sabalenka. She upped her first-serve points won to 77% and kept second-serve success at 67%, while Pegula’s second-serve points dipped to 20%. On return, Sabalenka won 14 points against serve to Pegula’s 6, consistently starting rallies on the front foot. The break tally from that pressure read two for Sabalenka and none for Pegula, matching the 6-2 scoreline. With no tiebreaks played in the match, the rhythm favored the aggressor who finished points earlier and with authority. Seed No. 1 advanced, maintaining her perfect hold record on the night across 10 service games. The run puts Sabalenka into the final of the US Open, Women, after a performance built on second-serve dominance and fearless hitting. For fans tracking the bracket, live scores and in-depth stats, Sofascore remains a handy companion throughout New York.