Jessica Pegula steadied, solved, and then surged. The No. 3 seed beat No. 31 Leylah Fernandez 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the Round of 32 at the US Open on the hard courts of Arthur Ashe Stadium. It took about two hours and ten minutes, and it took plenty of nerve.

Fernandez flew out of the blocks, but Pegula’s response in sets two and three was built on smarter serving and timely resistance on break points. The numbers tell a close story too, with total points just 86-84 to Pegula, yet the final two sets belonged to the American.

Fernandez lands the first punch

Set one was all Fernandez. She posted a 73% first-serve in rate and a flawless 100% on second serves in play, then backed that up by winning 58% of her first-serve points and 86% behind her second ball. She converted both of her break chances and never faced one herself. Pegula, by contrast, struggled to find rhythm, getting only 44% of first serves in and committing two double faults.

The return patterns underlined the early gap. Fernandez won 57% of first-serve return points and 66% against Pegula’s second serve, which snuffed out any hope of early holds. Pegula managed just six service points in the set and trailed 1-6 in short order. No tiebreaks were needed, and momentum looked one-way.

Pegula flips the serve script in set two

The second set turned when Pegula raised her delivery. She landed 83% of first serves and added two aces, a big leap from the opener. More importantly, she saved 6 of 7 break points faced, a swing that would define the match. Even with Fernandez still returning well, Pegula’s hold game toughened up.

Fernandez actually earned more receiver points in the set, 19 to 11, and continued to win over 60% of second-serve return points. Yet Pegula won 63% behind her first serve and limited the damage on second serve just enough. She also pounced on 47% of first-serve return points to break twice, taking the set 6-4. The 2-0 break-conversion edge for Pegula in the set perfectly captured the momentum flip.

Third set swing: big serves, bigger saves

With the match on the line, Pegula’s serve peaked. She fired three aces, faced two break points and saved them both, and won 74% of points behind her first serve plus 63% on second serve. Fernandez kept her first-serve in rate high at 80%, but two double faults and only 40% of points won behind her second serve opened the door.

Pegula not only protected her own games but also won 40% of first-serve return points and 60% on second-serve returns in the decider. That combination yielded a single but decisive break. Service points told the story late: 22 won by Pegula to 14 for Fernandez. A 6-3 finish capped a composed comeback, built on clutch serving and break-point resilience when it mattered most.

Numbers behind the comeback

The stat sheet shows how fine the margins were. Total points were almost even at 86-84 to Pegula, and both players won 13 games across the match. Each held serve 10 times and secured three breaks. Pegula’s 5 aces to Fernandez’s 1 provided welcome free points as the match wore on, and she cut out double faults entirely after the first set.

On balance shots, Pegula hit more winners, 21 to 13, with a clear edge off the backhand, 7 to 4, and on overall groundstrokes, 15 to 10. Errors were plentiful on both sides in a high-pace contest, with Pegula at 42 and Fernandez at 35, and unforced errors at 29 and 25 respectively. The trade-off favored Pegula because her winners tally comfortably outpaced her opponent’s, especially in sets two and three. Return data adds texture: Pegula won 46% of first-serve return points overall, while Fernandez thrived against second serves at 53%. Once Pegula lifted her first-serve in rate and tightened the second serve, Fernandez’s return advantage narrowed enough for the No. 3 seed to control the finish.

What it means in New York

For Pegula, the victory fits her seed and showcases problem-solving under pressure on the US Open’s biggest court. She advances from the Round of 32 into the last 16 with confidence in her serve and her ability to save break points, having denied 8 of 11 across the match. Fernandez exits with plenty to like too, from a sharp returning day to an assertive start that forced adjustments from one of the top-ranked players.

Fans can dive into the full point-by-point flow and match data on Sofascore’s event page, and track the broader bracket via the US Open, Women draw. Sofascore’s live scores, advanced stats and Sofascore Rating help make sense of tight matches like this one. On a hardcourt night at Arthur Ashe, small edges in serve location, first-serve percentage, and break-point poise turned a rough start into a composed finish for the American.