From early on, Arsenal’s approach was clear: circulate, progress and pin Forest back. They finished with 74% possession and 629 total passes, more than treble Forest’s 221. That control translated into 30 touches in the penalty area to Forest’s 17, plus 76 entries into the final third versus 33. Cross volume also leaned Arsenal’s way with 27 attempts and 26% accuracy, while Forest managed 14 crosses at 7%.

Although the xG gap was modest at 1.07 to 0.75, Arsenal were the side that created the game’s only big chance. The average team ratings on Sofascore underlined the difference, 7.91 for Arsenal to 7.27 for Forest. The passing accuracy divide was stark as well with 565 accurate passes for the visitors and 155 for Forest. Aerially, Arsenal won 19 of 33 duels, key for resetting pressure and keeping phases alive. That territorial edge built the platform for the late breakthrough.

Forest’s volume vs Arsenal’s quality

Forest threw plenty at it and actually led the total shots 14 to 9. They worked two efforts on target and saw six more blocked, a nod to Arsenal’s positioning and pressure on the shooter. Murillo and Delap were Forest’s liveliest outlets, combining for five shots and important ball carries to get the crowd going. Corners also favored the hosts 8 to 6, and they out-tackled Arsenal 22 to 9, showing clear commitment without the ball.

Yet the quality of chances tilted toward Arsenal. Expected goals on target finished level at 0.16 apiece, but goalkeeping numbers told a story: David Raya made two saves and posted 0.16 goals prevented, while Matz Sels was credited with -0.84. Arsenal also forced 12 clearances from Forest’s area while making only 12 of their own, compared to 29 for the home side. Even with Forest clocking more sprints 115 to 105, the visitors’ sequences were more incisive where it mattered. In short, Forest had volume, Arsenal had timing.

Key moments and the deciding strike

The decisive move arrived on 80 minutes. Declan Rice, who ran the midfield with 98 passes and three key passes, fed Noni Madueke cutting in from the right. Madueke’s right-foot finish found the high center of the goal, a clinical end to an attack that carried just 0.0589 xG and 0.1648 xGOT. It was a finish that looked simple because the buildup had shifted the Forest back line just enough.

Substitutions shaped the second half. Arsenal introduced Madueke at the break for Eberechi Eze, then Jurriën Timber, Viktor Gyökeres and Mikel Merino arrived on 66. Forest turned to Arnaud Kalimuendo and Ibrahim Sangaré around the 73-74 minute mark, later replacing the injured Jair with Chris Wood and swapping James McAtee for Callum Hudson-Odoi on 85. The only bookings went to Neco Williams on 17 and Madueke on 53, both for fouls. By then, rhythms had set and margins were fine, but the away bench provided the final nudge. With Arsenal committing fewer errors that led to shots and compressing space late, the single goal felt enough.

MVP spotlight: Gabriel Magalhães

Gabriel Magalhães earned an 8 Sofascore Rating and anchored everything excellent about Arsenal out of possession. He completed 70 of 73 passes, including 31 of 33 in the opposition half, which helped keep the ball where Arsenal wanted it. Defensively, he stacked up six clearances and three blocks, and he won five aerial duels while taking nine of 12 total duels. A key pass and 92 touches spoke to his steady involvement in both buildup and set-play restarts.

He even threatened from set pieces with two shots and 0.36 xG, reminding everyone that organization at the back and danger at the other end can live in the same kit. His defensive value stood out in the numbers and in the timing of interventions when Forest tried to turn crosses into chaos. Around him, Ezri Konsa rated 7.4 and David Raya 7.4, while Declan Rice posted a 7.7 with the assist and heavy ball-carrying work through midfield. Bruno Guimarães also impressed before going off on 66, logging a 7.6 for his two-way shift. In a game of details, Gabriel supplied most of them with minimal fuss.